Upset Picks

(10) Missouri over (7) Miami FL

10-over-7 upsets hit 37.5% of the time. Taking the upset — Miami FL has been middling and inconsistent down the stretch.

Historically: 10-seeds beat 7-seeds 37.5% of the time

(13) Cal Baptist over (4) Kansas

THIS IS THE UPSET. Cal Baptist won 15 of 17, playing just 100 miles from campus in San Diego. Dominique Daniels Jr. averaging 23.2 ppg. Kansas had blowout losses late and Darryn Peterson's health is shaky. Kornacki agrees this is the spot.

Historically: 13-seeds beat 4-seeds 20.6% of the time

(11) South Florida over (6) Louisville

USF has won 11 straight and swept both the AAC regular season AND tournament. Louisville is missing Mikel Brown Jr. (back injury). Both teams live by the three — taking the hot team with its star healthy.

Historically: 11-seeds beat 6-seeds 36.3% of the time

(10) UCF over (7) UCLA

10-over-7 upsets hit 37.5% of the time. Taking the upset — UCLA has been middling all season with no signature wins.

Historically: 10-seeds beat 7-seeds 37.5% of the time

(12) Akron over (5) Texas Tech

The best upset pick on the board. Texas Tech lost JT Toppin to a torn ACL — their best player who was putting up 31 points and 13 rebounds before going down. They've lost 3 straight. Akron has won 19 of 20 with a 10-game active win streak. Most popular 12-upset pick (22.8% of bracket users).

Historically: 12-seeds beat 5-seeds 35.6% of the time

(10) Santa Clara over (7) Kentucky

10-over-7 hits 37.5%. Kentucky has been maddeningly inconsistent — 'roster expectations unmet' per SI. Santa Clara is KenPom #37 vs Kentucky's uninspiring season and is playing well.

Historically: 10-seeds beat 7-seeds 37.5% of the time

(12) McNeese over (5) Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt just beat Florida in the SEC semis which inflated their stock, but they're a classic 'peaked too early in conference tourney' team. McNeese is 28-5 and the 3rd most popular 12-upset pick (14.8%).

Historically: 12-seeds beat 5-seeds 35.6% of the time

(13) Troy over (4) Nebraska

Nebraska is the most obvious upset victim in the bracket. Started 20-0, collapsed to 6-6 down the stretch, and has NEVER won a tournament game in program history. Troy beat San Diego State and took USC to overtime. Kornacki is all over this one.

Historically: 13-seeds beat 4-seeds 20.6% of the time

(11) VCU over (6) North Carolina

UNC lost Caleb Wilson (19.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg) to a broken thumb. Without their best player, the Tar Heels are vulnerable. VCU is 27-7 and has March pedigree — they made the 2011 Final Four as an 11-seed from the First Four.

Historically: 11-seeds beat 6-seeds 36.3% of the time

(10) Texas A&M over (7) Saint Mary's

10-over-7 at 37.5%. Saint Mary's at 27-5 looks great on paper but the WCC schedule is soft compared to what Texas A&M faced in the SEC.

Historically: 10-seeds beat 7-seeds 37.5% of the time

(6) BYU over (3) Gonzaga

Dybantsa goes off against a Gonzaga team missing Braden Huff. Without their key big man, Gonzaga can't contain Dybantsa's scoring versatility.

(5) St. John's over (1) Duke

HERE'S THE BIG CALL. Duke without Caleb Foster can't handle St. John's elite guard play. Boozer is incredible but he can't do it alone with a depleted backcourt against a team that's really a #2-3 seed masquerading as a #5.

(2) Houston over (1) Florida

REMATCH OF THE 2025 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME. Florida won 65-63 last year. This time Houston gets revenge. Three starters who lived that heartbreak fuel a defensive masterclass. Houston holds Florida under 60 and avenges last year's loss. Houston 61-57.

(2) Houston over (1) Michigan

The lowest-scoring semifinal in years. Two elite defenses that refuse to give up easy buckets. Michigan has the #1 defense but Houston has three players who've been on the biggest stage and lost. That scar tissue is fuel. Houston's tournament-hardened veterans make the clutch plays. Michigan's offense, which barely squeaked past Iowa State, can't generate enough against Houston's defense. Free throws decide it.